Power Law Z-Score

-0.86s Undervalued

-2 Deep-1 Under0 Fair+1 Over+2 Top

The Power Law Z-score measures how far the current BTC price sits above or below the long-run Power Law trend in log-space. The trend is calibrated on 14 years of daily data (R²=0.965). A Z below -1 has historically been a strong accumulation zone, meaning price is more than one standard deviation below trend. The current reading of -0.86 puts BTC in "Undervalued" territory. Historically when Z was below -0.5, BTC returned a median of +140% over the following 12 months.

MVRV Ratio

1.297 Bear Zone

01.21.742.253.7+

MVRV (Market Value to Realised Value) compares what the market values BTC at vs the aggregate on-chain cost basis of every coin. When MVRV = 1.0, the average holder is breakeven. Below 1.74 (historical median) means most holders are near or below their cost basis, which is historically an accumulation zone. At 1.297, the average holder is +30% in profit, but still well below the median cycle reading.

SPI + ADI Signal

$88K Base estimate

Bear $51KBase $88KBull $141K

The SPI (Supply Pressure Index) measures how tight the liquid BTC supply is - specifically, how much is available to trade after ETF absorption and miner retention. The ADI (Adoption Demand Index) measures demand via active addresses, stablecoin velocity, and Lightning Network capacity. Combined regression R²=0.689. When ETFs absorb more BTC daily than miners produce (current: ~970 BTC/day ETF vs ~450 BTC/day new supply), the SPI enters negative territory, indicating a structural supply crunch.

THE MASTER EQUATION

BTC Fair Value = Anchor
            x exp(S beta·Z)

The model has two engines. The Anchor is what Bitcoin is fundamentally worth - a weighted blend of three models based on supply scarcity, adoption, and on-chain cost basis. The Factor multiplier is how much the current macro environment should push that price above or below anchor. exp(positive sum) = premium. exp(negative sum) = discount.

ANCHOR - 3 MODELS BLENDED

Each model captures a different dimension of value. PL is pure time. SPI+ADI captures real supply/demand balance including ETF flows. MVRV captures where we are in the market cycle relative to aggregate holder cost. MVRV reverts gradually (9-month half-life) from its current level of 1.297 toward target, not in a single jump.

FACTORS - 5 BLOCKS, 17 SIGNALS

Each factor is normalised to a z-score vs its historical average. Z > 0 = better than normal for BTC = premium. Betas are estimated using a Kalman Filter, which lets them evolve over time - so the ETF flow beta, which did not exist before Jan 2024, is now the largest single factor in the model.

HORIZON WEIGHTS

At short horizons, macro factors dominate - real yields, equity markets, and ETF flow movements drive price. Over 5 years, all macro factors mean-revert toward zero and the anchor (Power Law time trend, MVRV cycle position, supply dynamics) is almost entirely responsible for the price target.

CoinGecko

Live BTC spot price. Updates via WebSocket.

Farside Investors

ETF daily BTC absorption. Currently ~970 BTC/day. Largest supply factor.

CoinMetrics

Realized Cap, MVRV ratio. Foundation of the MVRV anchor model.

Glassnode

LTH supply, exchange reserves, SOPR. Core on-chain factor inputs.

FRED (St. Louis Fed)

10Y real yield (TIPS), HY credit spread, 2s10s yield curve. Macro Block 1+2.

Yahoo Finance

VIX, SPX return, DXY index. Live via public API on deployment.

CoinGlass

Futures open interest, perpetual funding rates. Block 3 crypto factors.

Power Law Model

E=5.5631, C=exp(-36.926), s=0.6456. Calibrated Jan 2012 to Mar 2026.

This is not a trading signal. The model gives a structural fair value estimate. BTC can trade below fair value for months or above it for longer. The model explains price; it does not predict timing.

Black swans are not modelled. FTX collapse, COVID crash, regulatory bans - any sudden event can gap the price far outside any corridor. The bear floor ($45K at 3M) is a model floor, not a guarantee.

The Power Law has no mechanism. It is purely empirical - Bitcoin has followed this log-log trend since 2012. It may stop. The R²=0.965 is impressive but 14 years of data is a short history for a power law claim.

OOS accuracy is 58-65%. The factor model predicts direction correctly about 60% of the time out-of-sample. Better than a coin flip, worse than what headlines might imply. Use it as one input, not the only one.

Live AI Summary

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Updating in real time  ·  Last updated: -

Direction Accuracy

62%

out-of-sample

Avg Error (12M)

±18%

vs spot price

Longest Drawdown

14 mo

below fair value (2022)

Undervalued Signals

7 / 9

led to +100%+ returns

Fear & Greed Index

How to read the heatmap

EXTREME FEAR (0-25)

Historically the strongest accumulation zone. Most holders are capitulating. On-chain data typically shows: SOPR below 1.0 (selling at a loss), LTH accumulation rising, exchange outflows. BTC returned a median of +180% in the 12 months following extreme fear readings.

Key drivers: macro fear, liquidation cascades, negative news flow

NEUTRAL (45-55)

Market in equilibrium. Neither fear-driven selling nor euphoric buying. Often seen during consolidation after sharp moves. Watch for: direction of funding rates, ETF flow trend, and whether open interest is building. Breakout direction from neutral often signals the next 30-60 day trend.

Key drivers: macro data, Bitcoin dominance shifts, funding rate direction

EXTREME GREED (75-100)

Historically a near-term caution zone. Retail FOMO dominates, leverage is elevated, funding rates spike. Watch for: PL Z-score above +1.5s, MVRV above 3.7, negative ETF outflows. Corrections of 30-50% have occurred within 3 months of sustained extreme greed.

Key drivers: retail inflows, leverage build-up, positive news saturation